Polymarket News

Geopolitics

Most traded markets across prediction-market platforms

Sort

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Manifold ↗

· Vol 3.21M mana

· Ends Dec 31, 2026

3.6%
probability

Explanation

Iran Regime Fall in 2026?

This market asks whether Iran’s government will fall before the end of 2026; it resolves on that question on Dec. 31, 2026. At 4%, traders see roughly a 1-in-25 chance—about one in 25. Recent coverage specifically about the regime’s survival is limited.

At 3.6% · deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Manifold ↗

· Vol 2.59M mana

· Ends Jan 2, 2028

94.1%+0.8pp
probability

Will Trump finish his second term?

Manifold ↗

· Vol 2.05M mana

· Ends Jan 22, 2029

82.7%-3.5pp
probability

Will WW3 happen before GTA6?

Manifold ↗

· Vol 1.68M mana

· Ends in 14d

1.0%-2.8pp
probability

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Manifold ↗

· Vol 928K mana

· Ends Jan 1, 2027

1.1%
probability

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Manifold ↗

· Vol 751K mana

· Ends Nov 8, 2028

14.2%-5.7pp
probability

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Manifold ↗

· Vol 619K mana

· Ends Jan 19, 2029

16.0%-1.0pp
probability

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Manifold ↗

· Vol 298K mana

· Ends Jan 21, 2030

36.5%
probability

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi ↗

· Vol 213K contracts

· Ends Jan 1, 2027

8.7%+4.7pp
probability

Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?

Manifold ↗

· Vol 126K mana

· Ends Jan 1, 2027

14.0%-2.9pp
probability

Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada before the next general election?

Kalshi ↗

· Vol 125K contracts

· Ends Oct 15, 2029

13.0%+6.5pp
probability

Will the Onion Futures Act be repealed before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027

Kalshi ↗

· Vol 109K contracts

· Ends Jan 1, 2027

3.0%-0.5pp
probability

Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election? — Restore Britain party

Kalshi ↗

· Vol 105K contracts

· Ends Aug 31, 2029

1.8%
probability

Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Manifold ↗

· Vol 98K mana

· Ends Jul 2, 2028

34.9%
probability

Will Reform win the next U.K. election? — Reform party

Kalshi ↗

· Vol 76.4K contracts

· Ends Aug 31, 2029

30.0%+4.0pp
probability

Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House? — Hakeem Jeffries

Kalshi ↗

· Vol 70.1K contracts

· Ends Jan 1, 2031

92.6%+2.6pp
probability

Will Nick Fuentes become President of the United States before 2045?

Kalshi ↗

· Vol 58.3K contracts

· Ends Jan 8, 2045

22.0%
probability

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 2028

Kalshi ↗

· Vol 46.2K contracts

· Ends Jan 1, 2028

5.0%-14.0pp
probability

Will Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before Jan 22, 2045?

Kalshi ↗

· Vol 45.4K contracts

· Ends Jan 29, 2045

20.0%+8.0pp
probability

Will the Onion Futures Act be repealed before Jan 1, 2029? — Before 2029

Kalshi ↗

· Vol 43.7K contracts

· Ends Jan 1, 2029

26.0%-0.5pp
probability